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Well, if you believe the news...
Nov. 4th, 2008 07:25 pm...Obama has a commanding lead in the electoral vote race.
FiveThirtyEight.com, with its rigorous statistical methodology and analysis is currently at the "based on safe states and called races, Obama is over 270 already" stage. Yes, they're calling pretty early.
The AP (which I'm getting through the Yahoo! Election 08 Political Dashboard) isn't taking as big a risk. They've got Obama at 202 with called states (and they're being cautious about which states they call). Beyond that? Returns data from Florida looks very good, with a 3 point lead for Obama at the 66% reporting mark. Returns data from Virginia and North Carolina are looking distinctly possible for Obama with a scant lead in each with 80 and 70 percent of precincts reporting, respectively. McCain is squeaking by with the same sort of margin in Indiana. He's trouncing Obama in GA, but election-watchers there say that the Democratic-leaning urban counties are often the last returns in. I doubt that's enough to reverse a 20-point deficit, but stranger things have happened.
Senate and House numbers are also looking really good for Democratic candidates. Really good.
FiveThirtyEight.com, with its rigorous statistical methodology and analysis is currently at the "based on safe states and called races, Obama is over 270 already" stage. Yes, they're calling pretty early.
The AP (which I'm getting through the Yahoo! Election 08 Political Dashboard) isn't taking as big a risk. They've got Obama at 202 with called states (and they're being cautious about which states they call). Beyond that? Returns data from Florida looks very good, with a 3 point lead for Obama at the 66% reporting mark. Returns data from Virginia and North Carolina are looking distinctly possible for Obama with a scant lead in each with 80 and 70 percent of precincts reporting, respectively. McCain is squeaking by with the same sort of margin in Indiana. He's trouncing Obama in GA, but election-watchers there say that the Democratic-leaning urban counties are often the last returns in. I doubt that's enough to reverse a 20-point deficit, but stranger things have happened.
Senate and House numbers are also looking really good for Democratic candidates. Really good.
