A silver lining?

[bovil]

No, not the wait for mail-in ballots to be counted in the Prop 8 vote. If all the numbers are true (3,000,000 outstanding mail-in ballots, a 400,000 ballot deficit) we need a 15 point advantage against in the mail-in ballots. That's pretty unlikely. Of course, once we get a report from the Secretary of State on outstanding ballots (currently the report is blank) we'll find out if any of this is even possible, much less likely. I don't expect that for days; they just got their website back up and functioning fully.

The silver lining is the ACLU's suit that the amendment initiative exceeds the boundaries of an amendment, and instead is a "revision" to the constitution. Seeing that suit win would warm the cockles of my heart. Why?

Well, "Yes on 8" burned up $40million that could have been spent by evangelicals and Mormons on other races. That's nationally significant dollars. That's more than Republican campaigns went into debt this race. Sure, "No on 8" burned up money that could have been used in other progressive campaigns, but thanks to Obama's charm and fundraising skills it wasn't needed. I would love to see all that money wasted on an initiative that was struck down.

That's not what's going to make me dance a happy dance if the courts do strike the initiative down, though. What will make me dance a happy dance is that, if the courts strike down Prop 8 on the grounds that it's a "revision" rather than an "amendment" that pretty much kills any chances future initiatives on the subject have. It raises the bar to a level that other states haven't been able to defeat, and well above the current 52% that Prop 8 could muster.

Will it happen?

I'm not going to set myself up for disappointment. That said, the courts have struck down initiatives on just these grounds; there is legal precedent.

Comments

[yourbob.livejournal.com]

Thank you for this update. I'm finding I'm getting way too much of my information from you, though. Must find other sources (not because you're unreliable!!)

Fingers crossed.

[chris-sawyer.livejournal.com]

Seeing that the CA State Govt is hostile to prop 8, there is hope!

[dsmoen.livejournal.com]

I cannot imagine being in your and your husband's shoes.

I'm starting on a suggested list of items for straight sympathizers to do, which I'll post after the count has been certified.

One of the coolest things was going to SF last night and hearing Gavin Newsom speak.

[aramintamd.livejournal.com]

One can only hope.

[sinmix.livejournal.com]

"Well, "Yes on 8" burned up $40million that could have been spent by evangelicals and Mormons on other races."

thank you for pointing this out. i've been very upset that my adopted home state could look beyond possible prejudices to chose an african american for president, but couldn't see past them to allow marriage equality.

[howeird]

Heard on TV this morning that the mail-in ballot counting is expected to take 2 weeks.

I have seen the future, and it has a repeal in it.

[rinolj.livejournal.com]

March 7, 2000: California voters pass Prop. 22 (initiative statute). Statewide vote count was:

61.1% "Yes"
38.6% "No"
22.5% margin of victory

Nov. 4, 2008: California voters pass Prop. 8 (initiative constitutional amendment), with the same text. Statewide estimated vote was:

52.5% "Yes"
47.5% "No"
5% margin of victory

Elapsed time required for this near-total erosion of the victory margin: eight years, eight months.

Set your alarms for November 6, 2012 -- if the court challenge doesn't stake this thing through the heart first. The times, they are a changing.

More analysis of the legal position

[madoc62.livejournal.com]

Folks,

Here's some more analysis of the legal position(s) being taken against Prop 8:

http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_11_02-2008_11_08.shtml#1226036505

Interesting stuff to read through. In particular is the analogies which essentially replace "gays" with Mormons or blacks in regard to stripping them of marriage rights.

Madoc

Money well spent

[garwalf.livejournal.com]

On the flip side of the fundraising, I'm still feeling good about the money I gave to the "No on 8" campaign. How often do you get the chance to fill the airwaves with queer-positive ads, all over the state? They reached people who probably wouldn't get that kind of "yes, we're people too" message anywhere else.